Friday 17th July, 2026
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must be on cloud nine. The US is now doing exactly what he wanted it to do; it is attacking Iran without Israeli involvement. Israeli officials have told the media that they do not expect Israel to become directly involved in the new phase of fighting though the Israel Defence Forces remain on alert should the conflict expand. This can be considered another dream come true for Netanyahu, who said after the first round of US-Israeli airstrikes which killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that he had been dreaming of attacking Iran for 40 years.
What is unfolding in West Asia is an asymmetric conflict where the US firepower is far superior to that of Iran, which is resisting Trump’s “Epic Fury”. Tehran’s resilience is remarkable. The US cannot go on carrying out airstrikes indefinitely. Only a ground war will determine a clear winner.
Trump has threatened a ground assault in Iran, but he has the war powers resolution passed by the Congress recently to contend with. A ground operation won’t be a walk in the park. Deploying ground troops is a high-risk gamble that did not pay off for the US in Vietnam and Afghanistan. A steady flow of body bags from a foreign theatre of war that lacks popular support at home has the potential to unsettle any government.
Weapons stockpiles are not unlimited for any nation however mighty and wealthy it may be. The ongoing conflict has depleted the weapons inventories of both sides to it. However, it can be considered a matter of greater concern to the US than Iran in that Washington has to fire a large number of missiles at multiple targets in Iran as part of its strategy to keep Tehran under pressure. Michael O’Hanlon, who leads the Brookings Institution’s foreign policy research, has been quoted by the media as saying that the US weapons stockpiles are doubtlessly lower than Washington would prefer.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank, has reportedly said that by the time full-scale fighting between the US and Iran stopped in April, the Pentagon had fired at least half of its THAAD ballistic missile interceptors, nearly half of its Patriot air defence interceptors, and around 30% of its Tomahawk land-attack missiles. This revelation runs counter to President Trump’s boastful claim that the US has a never-ending supply of missiles. Besides, in March, Trump said that his officials had met the heads of US arms manufacturing companies and they had promised to increase production.
Military analysts are of the view that it could take between one to four years for the US to replenish its vital munitions stockpiles and restore them to the pre-Iran war levels, according to an Al Jazeera report. Speculation is rife in international defence circles that if the depletion of the US weapons stockpiles continues at this rate, Washington may find it difficult to face a military conflict elsewhere.
Global oil prices are rising again due to the closure of the Hormuz Strait. A US naval blockade will be of little use. The global economy will be the biggest loser. Oil supply disruptions will take a heavy toll on the US economy as well. The first phase of the Iran war sent the US fuel prices up, and the closure of the Hormuz chokepoint will make the situation far worse. Trump is fighting a war that a vast majority of Americans are opposed to, according to opinion survey results. US farmers have been complaining of production cost escalations due to the knock-on economic effects of the West Asia conflict, according to media reports. US midterm elections are due in a few months and the Republicans are not doing well on the political front.
The White House will have to justify the colossal amounts of funds being spent on the current war. The financial cost of the conflict is still being calculated, but according to some estimates the direct military cost ranges from about USD 40 billion to more than USD 100 billion, with equipment losses, base repairs and weapons replenishment being taken into account. The cost continues to escalate. These politico-economic factors will also have a bearing on Trump’s military campaign.
from The Island https://ift.tt/4t0uX7n
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