Book Review
By Kasuni Ranasinghe
In an era defined by intensifying great-power competition, shifting alliance structures, and the reconfiguration of regional order, Asanga Abeyagoonasekera’s Winds of Change: Geopolitics at the Crossroads of South and Southeast Asia offers a comprehensive and timely account of the forces reshaping the Indo-Pacific. Published by World Scientific in 2026, the book brings together the author’s two decades of experience at the intersection of foreign policy, national security, and strategic advisory roles in Sri Lanka — including as Founding Director General of the Institute of National Security Studies Sri Lanka and Executive Director of the Lakshman Kadirgamar Institute. Abeyagoonasekera currently serves as Executive Director of the South Asia Foresight Network under the Millennium Project in Washington, DC, and as Technical Advisor to the International Monetary Fund. This depth of practitioner experience lends the book an analytical texture that enriches its theoretical engagement and grounds its regional observations in the realities of contemporary statecraft.
Overview of the Work
The book is organised around four central themes: the geopolitics of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI); India–China regional diplomacy under Prime Minister Modi; broader geopolitical power rivalries involving the United States and its Indo-Pacific strategy; and Sri Lanka’s evolving domestic political landscape following the 2024 election of President Anura Kumara Dissanayake — the country’s first Marxist-leaning leader. These themes are explored across a wide regional canvas encompassing Thailand, Cambodia, Singapore, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Pakistan, the Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka, rendering the work one of the most panoramic assessments of South and Southeast Asian geopolitics in recent years.
A defining feature of the work is its use of classical geopolitical theory to illuminate contemporary dynamics. Drawing on Nicholas J. Spykman’s Rimland thesis alongside modern international relations (IR) thinkers, the author argues that control over the maritime and littoral periphery of Eurasia — including the Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal, and the Malacca Strait — remains central to 21st-century great-power competition. This theoretical lens provides a coherent framework for understanding why South and Southeast Asia have become the primary arena in which the strategic ambitions of China, India, and the United States converge and collide.
Theoretical Grounding in International Relations
Abeyagoonasekera engages with several established theoretical frameworks from IR scholarship to interpret regional behaviour. The realist tradition, particularly structural realism as articulated by Kenneth Waltz and later John Mearsheimer, undergirds much of the book’s analysis. States in South and Southeast Asia are depicted as rational actors responding to the distribution of power in the international system, engaging in balancing and hedging strategies to safeguard their sovereignty and interests. The persistent India–China rivalry, the arms build-up across the region, and the competition for strategic port access and maritime dominance are all interpreted through this realist lens, wherein power, security, and survival remain the primary motivators of state behaviour.
The book also draws upon neoliberal institutionalism to make sense of the BRI as a vehicle of economic interdependence and connectivity. Abeyagoonasekera’s analysis suggests that China’s infrastructural diplomacy reflects a broader logic of creating interlocking economic relationships that make cooperation mutually beneficial and defection costly for smaller partner states. This reading aligns with liberal IR theory’s emphasis on institutions, trade, and interdependence as mechanisms of order-building — a perspective that adds important nuance to reductive portrayals of Chinese engagement in the region.
Perhaps the most analytically productive theoretical thread running through the work is the concept of “hedging,” developed by scholars such as Evelyn Goh and Cheng-Chwee Kuik to describe the risk-minimisation strategies of small and middle powers caught between competing great powers. Rather than fully aligning with either China or the United States, the majority of South and Southeast Asian states discussed in the book pursue portfolios of engagement — maintaining economic ties with Beijing while preserving security partnerships with Washington and New Delhi. This hedging dynamic is illustrated most vividly through the case of Sri Lanka, whose foreign policy navigates between competing centres of gravity with notable strategic flexibility. Abeyagoonasekera’s use of this framework allows the book to move beyond a binary “China versus the West” reading of regional geopolitics toward a more nuanced appreciation of how agency operates even under conditions of structural constraint.
Relevance to South Asian Geopolitics
The book’s most sustained and original contribution lies in its treatment of South Asian geopolitics, a domain that has historically received less rigorous scholarly attention than the great-power competition it hosts. Abeyagoonasekera convincingly demonstrates that South Asia is no longer merely a theatre of proxy competition between China and India; it has become an active site of agency, where smaller states exercise meaningful strategic choice even under structural pressure. The cases of Bangladesh, Nepal, and the Maldives illustrate this point well, as each government has at different moments pivoted between Indian and Chinese influence in ways that reflect domestic political calculations as much as external imperatives.
Sri Lanka occupies the analytical centrepiece of the book, and with good reason. As a small island nation at the confluence of the Indian Ocean’s major sea lanes, Sri Lanka crystallises the dilemmas facing South Asian states more broadly. President Dissanayake’s inaugural state visit to China, which secured USD 3.7 billion in foreign direct investment, is read by the author not merely as a transactional diplomatic moment, but as a signal of the broader ideological and economic repositioning that post-crisis Sri Lanka is navigating. This development raises important questions about India’s “Neighbourhood First” policy and the extent to which New Delhi’s regional influence is being tested by the depth and scale of Chinese economic engagement.
The book is equally attentive to India’s own foreign policy ambitions under Modi, situating them within a broader strategy of regional primacy and strategic autonomy. Abeyagoonasekera traces how India’s engagement through the Quad, its infrastructure investments under the Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR) framework, and its connectivity diplomacy across South Asia represent a coherent effort to consolidate its position as the pre-eminent regional power. Yet the author acknowledges the limits of this influence in economies where Chinese capital has secured deep structural footholds, and this tension between Indian aspiration and Chinese penetration in South Asia is one of the book’s most analytically rich themes.
The United States’ Indo-Pacific strategy enters the analysis as the third pole of the regional order. The book examines how American strategic frameworks position the region as a domain of democratic values and rules-based international order, and raises the consequential question of whether a renewed Trump presidency could accelerate a reorientation of the global order toward Beijing. For South Asian states that have calibrated their hedging strategies around the assumption of sustained American engagement, this scenario carries profound implications and Abeyagoonasekera handles it with appropriate analytical seriousness.
Conclusion
Winds of Change is an intellectually engaging and empirically rich contribution to the scholarship on South and Southeast Asian geopolitics. By weaving together classical geopolitical theory, realist and neoliberal IR frameworks, and the concept of small-state hedging, Abeyagoonasekera provides readers with a layered understanding of how a volatile region is navigating the defining power competition of the 21st century. The book’s particular strength lies in its grounding in Sri Lanka as a case that crystallises the tensions, trade-offs, and strategic choices facing all South Asian states as they simultaneously manage relationships with China, India, and the United States.
For scholars of international relations, South Asian politics, and Indo-Pacific security, this volume is essential reading. It is equally accessible to graduate students, policymakers, and informed general readers who seek to understand the forces driving one of the world’s most consequential and contested geopolitical regions. As the winds of change continue to reshape the international order, Abeyagoonasekera’s account serves as both a valuable analytical record and a provocation for further scholarly inquiry.
Reference
Abeyagoonasekera, A. (2026). Winds of change: Geopolitics at the crossroads of South and Southeast Asia. World Scientific Publishing.
Kasuni Ranasinghe is a research student at Macquarie University, whose academic path includes a Master of Education from the University of Melbourne, a Master of International Relations from the University of Colombo, and a Bachelor of Arts from the University of Kelaniya. She was a former Research Analyst at the Institute of National Security Studies Ministry of Defence Sri Lanka
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