El Niño threat looms large

Friday 31st July, 2026

The latest World Meteorological Organization forecast indicates that El Niño conditions, which are already underway, are likely to strengthen rapidly into a strong event over the next few weeks and persist through the end of 2026. The current outlook suggests a moderate but increasing possibility of adverse impacts on Sri Lanka. Attempts are being made in some quarters to underestimate the El Niño impact, but prudence demands that we prepare for the worst-case scenario.

Sri Lanka has earned notoriety for ignoring early warnings and waiting until disaster strikes to act. Politics has apparently taken precedence over economic and climate concerns these days. It is time for climate action.

Principal El Niño risks for Sri Lanka have been identified as water stress, drought, reduced agricultural production, food inflation, lower hydropower generation, heatwaves and economic losses. Proper planning is a prerequisite for countering these risks effectively.

Water shortages, reduced agricultural output and higher energy costs could increase inflationary pressures and slow economic growth. Asian economies are generally considered vulnerable to the knock-on effects of El Niño events, which could not have come at a worse time for Sri Lanka, which is emerging from its worst-ever economic crisis.

Water levels in several major reservoirs have already receded drastically, reducing their hydropower generation capacity besides aggravating the water woes of farmers and others. More oil will have to be burnt to meet the hydroelectricity shortfall at the expense of the country’s foreign currency reserves.

Senior Professor of Crop Science Buddhi Marambe has warned of a possible dry spell in the coming months, and called for action to minimise its impact on the agricultural sector. Farmers may have to change cropping schedules, depending on rainfall patterns, and they should strictly follow the guidelines issued by the agricultural authorities to manage the situation, Prof. Marambe has stressed, warning of possible crop losses.

There is a pressing need to build up buffer stocks of rice and other food items in view of possible crop losses. The government ought to step up purchasing paddy during the ongoing harvesting period lest the unscrupulous private millers and traders should take advantage of a possible drop in agricultural output and resort to price gouging.

The government should seriously consider reimposing the ban on using paddy and rice for manufacturing beer and animal feed. A highly water-intensive crop like rice, which is raised with subsidised fertiliser in this country, must not be used for producing beer or animal feed. Some experts have claimed that it takes about 1,500 to 3,000 litres of water to produce one kilogram of rice mostly due to traditional farming methods.

Meanwhile, Sri Lanka should go beyond responding to El Niño events and treat water security as a national strategic priority. Experts have pointed out that the country should concentrate more on climate-smart agriculture, irrigation infrastructure modernisation, prevention of leakages in water systems, especially in urban areas, expansion of rainwater harvesting, restoration of ancient tank networks, conservation of forests and catchments, and increasing investment in renewable energy that is not dependent on rainfall.

Action has reportedly been taken to develop a coordinated national action plan for water, food and energy security in view of El Niño events. It is most welcome, but the country’s focus should be intensified on both immediate contingency measures and long-term structural reforms, which alone will enable it to face El Niño conditions and attain climate resilience.

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