The result of the September 21 presidential election promises, more than anything ever before, the ‘system change’ demanded in 2002 by the Aragalaya as well as many other segments of the Sri Lanka polity outside the agitation. Commentators were correctly unanimous that none of the front runners, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa and then President Ranil Wickremesinghe would clear the 50 percent plus one vote margin eliminating a preference vote count for the first time in the country’s presidential election history.
But very few predicted that the eventual winner would be as clearly ahead of the two challengers as AKD was. Neither Premadasa nor Wickremesinghe cleared the 40 percent barrier, while the winner chalked up 42.31%. Wickremesinghe finished a very poor third with just 17.27% of the vote against Premadasa’s 32.76%. Namal Rajapaksa trailed far behind managing 02.57% percent raising doubts of whether the deeply divided SLPP, with Mahinda Rajapaksa showing clear signs of physical infirmity, Basil Rajapaksa gone to his new homeland and Gotabaya sulking in his tent, would remain relevant at the forthcoming parliamentary election. Likely contenders to enter and re-enter parliament positioned themselves for the next round of battle at the now completed presidential contest and the campaign leading to it. Many of them are likely to come a cropper..
There will be no debate that the new president and his NPP/JVP team ran an election campaign unparalleled for its efficiency and organizational brilliance enabling a new player from outside the elite to enter what was often described as a thattu maru field where the UNP and SLFP and their various offshoots took turns running the country. True, the JVP too participated in what it called the “probationary” government of Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga in 2001 and held three ministries (AKD was the minister of agriculture) there. It also helped Mrs. Sirima Bandaranaike and her leftist allies (LSSP and CP) to sweep out in 1970 the Dudley Senanayake government elected in 1965.
But a few months later in April 1971 it launched an armed insurrection to topple the government for the first time in the country’s contemporary history. Popularly dubbed a “handbomb revolution,” rebels using homemade bombs and shotguns commandeered countrywide from farmers and other weapon holders, the outfit styled the Che Guevara movement was able to overrun a few police stations. The government was compelled to enlist military support from neighbouring countries like India and Pakistan as well as the West although no foreign troops were directly involved in suppressing the insurgency.
JVP founder Rohana Wijeweera and the other leaders of the 1971 insurrection were jailed under a Criminal Justice Commission mechanism but were freed by the J.R. Jayewardene regime elected by a landslide in 1977. Asked at that time what would happen if the JVP returned to arms, Jayewardene famously said “let them then first look for a place to hide.” The party thereafter took the parliamentary route towards capturing power when Wijeweera ran for president against Jayewardene and Hector Kobbekaduwa of the SLFP. He succeeded in polling 4.19% of the total vote cast, higher than AKD’s 3.16% at the November 2019 presidential election. This number alone, plus the fact that the NPP/JVP polled under four percent of the vote at the August 2020 parliamentary election, winning just three seats, is evidence enough of the surge in that party’s popularity within a short span of four years.
As readers well know, the JVP’s second armed adventure in 1988-89 was much bloodier than the 1971 insurrection both in terms of rebel action and state retaliation. Thousands of lives were lost on both sides with the Sri Lanka state fighting a civil war in the north taking on, with no holds barred, a bloody insurrection in south. That was a time when a chit delivered by a boy on bicycle could close factories and offices. Wijeweera was executed and much of the party’s leadership and cadre including many innocents liquidated. Dissanayake and his team succeeded to a great extent in persuading the electorate that its bloody history is a thing of the past by broadening the political formation to the NPP/JVP, led no doubt by the JVP but including other liberal organizations, to broaden its remit.
Following AKD’s victory, the NPP/JVP has made the right noises and many who once feared them now look forward to good governance and an end to the corruption in which the greens, blues and the purple satakas consorted. Although many promises have been made by parties that have governed the country, corruption has reigned supreme. The president made a brilliant choice in Dr. Harini Amarasuriya for prime minister. She has made many friends for the party during her short stint in the legislature as a National List MP. Whether she would remain in that position after the parliamentary election is an open question. There has been speculation that whoever wins the most preference votes on the NPP list at the forthcoming election would get the job.
Fridays news that the VFS visa scheme is out and Mobitel’s Electronic Travel Authorization reinstated from midnight has been loudly applauded. Increased fertilizer subsidies for farmers and cheaper fuel for fishermen are likely to win votes. A Westminster-style first-past-the-post election would have surely won a landslide for the NPP. But the forthcoming contest will be on proportional representation and less favourable. AKD will, no doubt, try to inspire those who didn’t vote on Sept. 21 to exercise their franchise. There will be many new faces in the NPP candidate list while the established parties would, most likely, field too many tired old faces reluctant to bow out of the scene.
from The Island https://ift.tt/7OsdN0Z
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